UN scientist: We can’t predict climate change
A noted climate scientist who is part of the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, now says computer models cannot predict future climate — and he says the IPCC is not in the climate prediction business.
Kevin Trenberth of the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research wrote on a nature magazine blog that the U.N.’s dire forecasts about the dangers of global warming are not climate predictions.
He says they are “what if” projections of future climate that correspond to certain emissions scenarios. And he admits the computer models don’t even consider things such as the recovery of the ozone layer.
He writes — “The current projection method…can not work for many aspects of climate, especially those related to the water cycle…The science is not done because we do not have reliable or regional predictions of climate.”