PBS’s Nova series usually sticks to hard science, but Tuesday’s show dipped into the world of economics and market psychology.
The resulting episode was both shallow and subtly partisan.
Here is how they describe their show:
In the aftermath of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, NOVA presents “Mind Over Money”—an entertaining and penetrating exploration of why mainstream economists failed to predict the crash of 2008 and why we so often make irrational financial decisions. It’s a show that reveals how our emotions interfere with our decision-making and explores controversial new arguments about the world of finance. Before the current crash, most Wall Street analysts believed that markets are “efficient”—that investors are reasonable and always operate in their own economic self-interest. Most of the time, these assumptions of classical economics work well enough. But in extreme situations, people panic and conventional theories collapse. In the face of the recent crash, can a new science that aims to incorporate human psychology into finance—behavioral economics—do better?
With mentioning Hayek by name, the producers were taking sides in the great economic debate of the 20th century: Hayek’s free market economics vs. Keynesian government-directed economics.
The topic was better explored in the PBS Frontline six-parter, The Commanding Heights. You can watch it online.
Nova showed some mildly interesting social science experiments that demonstrate how human beings will, at times, make irrational choices.
This is news?
Human beings are flawed. We’re often greedy, emotional, vindictive, etc. Open a newspaper and read any advice column for examples. (I’m assuming you have none in your own life.)
History is replete with economic bubbles. Charles MacKay’s Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds covered some doozies and it was written in 1841.
Since then we’ve had bubble after bubble.
The Florida land boom of the 1920s made some people into overnight millionaires. The Internet/tech bubble of the Clinton years made a lot of people rich and then poor. A lucky few, like Mark Cuban, got out on top.
There was even a Beanie Baby bubble.
So it isn’t news that human beings are subject to bubbles.
What’s the prevention? What’s the cure? A more intrusive regulatory scheme?
Given that government policy prompted the loose lending rules that fueled the housing bubble, why trust the government? Didn’t we already have numerous agencies staffed with smart people in place to prevent such things?
Who is to say that regulators are immune to bubble psychology, which, when you consider it, is just group-think writ large.
The Democrats will probably pass their finance reform bill, which will no doubt have unintended consequences that depress economic activity. Wealth that otherwise would have been created, won’t be. We won’t notice the loss because it will be invisible. There will be no flashy bubble bursting.
Of all the ideas floated since the 2008 “crash,” the most innovative came from Daniel Roth in Wired. He proposed that all financial reporting be done in a unified electronic format, then posted online so that the role of financial watchdog can be crowd sourced. That is, unleash Glenn Reynolds’s “Army of Davids” to study the fine print.
Writes Roth:
Even the regulators can’t keep up. A Senate study in 2002 found that the SEC had managed to fully review just 16 percent of the nearly 15,000 annual reports that companies submitted in the previous fiscal year; the recently disgraced Enron hadn’t been reviewed in a decade. We shouldn’t be surprised. While the SEC is staffed by a relatively small group of poorly compensated financial cops, Wall Street bankers get paid millions to create new and ever more complicated investment products. By the time regulators get a handle on one investment class, a slew of new ones have been created. “This is a cycle that goes on and on—and will continue to get repeated,” says Peter Wysocki, a professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management. “You can’t just make new regulations about the next innovation in financial misreporting.”
That’s why it’s not enough to simply give the SEC—or any of its sister regulators—more authority; we need to rethink our entire philosophy of regulation. Instead of assigning oversight responsibility to a finite group of bureaucrats, we should enable every investor to act as a citizen-regulator. We should tap into the massive parallel processing power of people around the world by giving everyone the tools to track, analyze, and publicize financial machinations. The result would be a wave of decentralized innovation that can keep pace with Wall Street and allow the market to regulate itself—naturally punishing companies and investments that don’t measure up—more efficiently than the regulators ever could.
Now there’s a novel idea for Nova (and Congress): rely on the wisdom of crowds, also a great book.