iran on the brink?
Amir Tehari says Thursday’s show in Iran was a flop.
So dismal was Thursday’s show that some regime supporters are already calling for an end to the exercise. The official events were boycotted by a majority of Iranians — and many senior regime figures also failed to show, including two former presidents, the mayor of Tehran and several retired generals of the regular armed forces.
“What is the point of an exercise that shows how divided our nation is today?” asks a member of the Islamic Majlis, Iran’s ersatz parliament. “Unless a political solution is found to bring the two camps together again, we should forget about anniversaries and demonstrations.”
A “political solution” is precisely what several key regime figures are urging “Supreme Guide” Ali Khamenei to adopt. Majlis Speaker Ali Larijani and his brother Sadeq, who heads the judiciary, are among those advising Khamenei to meet some opposition demands, even if that means shortening Ahmadinejad’s second term as president.
But Khamenei is also coming under growing pressure from those within the establishment who urge an early and massive crackdown. “Those who demonstrate against the system are waging war on Allah,” says Gen. Muhammad-Ali Aziz Jaafari, the guard commander and the chief advocate of an “iron fist” policy.
Khamenei is wavering. Always weak and indecisive, for years he depended on stronger men, like former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, to help him face difficult situations. But now Rafsanjani is flirting with the opposition, leaving Khamenei alone and exposed to pressure from rival factions within the regime.





